Modelling electricity production structure in Poland
Modelowanie struktury wytwarzania energii elektrycznej w Polsce
Janusz Sowiński
Streszczenie
The basis of the conducted analysis were the data on electricity production balance, including the structure of
electricity production. The data used for calculations include monthly electricity production figures from power plants
(thermal and hydro electric power plants, wind farms), independent power producers and industrial power stations. In this
paper, two predictive models are applied – a prediction method using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and
a method using stochastic differential equations (SDE), which make it possible to make medium-term projections of electricity
production and its structure, thus providing the basis for energy mix analysis. The results of estimations and verification
of the developed models are presented, as well as examples of prediction results. The results were compared to the projection
provided in the draft of Polityka Energetyczna Polski do 2040 roku PEP2040 (Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040). An attempt
was also made to answer the question whether the models based only on historical time series may serve as a valid
basis for the analysis of electricity production structure, and whether such models are capable of adequately describing the
processes in power engineering under uncertainty and risk.
electricity production. The data used for calculations include monthly electricity production figures from power plants
(thermal and hydro electric power plants, wind farms), independent power producers and industrial power stations. In this
paper, two predictive models are applied – a prediction method using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and
a method using stochastic differential equations (SDE), which make it possible to make medium-term projections of electricity
production and its structure, thus providing the basis for energy mix analysis. The results of estimations and verification
of the developed models are presented, as well as examples of prediction results. The results were compared to the projection
provided in the draft of Polityka Energetyczna Polski do 2040 roku PEP2040 (Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040). An attempt
was also made to answer the question whether the models based only on historical time series may serve as a valid
basis for the analysis of electricity production structure, and whether such models are capable of adequately describing the
processes in power engineering under uncertainty and risk.