Scenario-based evaluation of the decarbonisation target for the Polish energy sector
Scenariusze dekarbonizacji polskiego sektora energetycznego
Mariusz Kudełko
Streszczenie
The aim of this article is to identify potential pathways for achieving full decarbonisation of the Polish
energy sector by 2050. To this end, the study employs an original optimisation model simulating the long-term devel
opment of the domestic electricity and heat generation sector. The analysis considers three scenarios, each reflecting
different values of key risk parameters that may influence the achievement of full decarbonisation. The most signifi
cant sources of uncertainty were identified as: the growth rate of electricity demand, EUA prices, LULUCF potential,
capital expenditure (CAPEX) for RES, and the investment rate in RES. Simulation results are presented in terms of
the future electricity generation structure in Poland, discounted generation costs over 2025–2050, CO2 emissions in
2050, and the ratio of heat production to total energy production in 2050.
energy sector by 2050. To this end, the study employs an original optimisation model simulating the long-term devel
opment of the domestic electricity and heat generation sector. The analysis considers three scenarios, each reflecting
different values of key risk parameters that may influence the achievement of full decarbonisation. The most signifi
cant sources of uncertainty were identified as: the growth rate of electricity demand, EUA prices, LULUCF potential,
capital expenditure (CAPEX) for RES, and the investment rate in RES. Simulation results are presented in terms of
the future electricity generation structure in Poland, discounted generation costs over 2025–2050, CO2 emissions in
2050, and the ratio of heat production to total energy production in 2050.