Fractal theory application for heat demand forecasting in district heating system
Zastosowanie teorii fraktali do prognozowania zapotrzebowania na ciepło w systemie ciepłowniczym
Piotr Aleksiejuk, Wojciech Bujalski
Streszczenie
The aim of this thesis is to formulate short-term heat demand forecasting model based on fractal theory that predicts
the value of heat demand for all receivers connected to district heating system depending on weather forecast and calendar
information. The paper contains descriptions of basic fractal theory concepts, techniques, analysis of self-similarity of
heat demand data, and developed methodology of constructing fractal interpolation curve. Forecast accuracy was investigated
for planning heat production in 24-hour horizon.
the value of heat demand for all receivers connected to district heating system depending on weather forecast and calendar
information. The paper contains descriptions of basic fractal theory concepts, techniques, analysis of self-similarity of
heat demand data, and developed methodology of constructing fractal interpolation curve. Forecast accuracy was investigated
for planning heat production in 24-hour horizon.